- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Monday, May 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 27-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 18-28 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -110 | O 9 -120 | +180 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 9 +100 | -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 83.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+11.35 Units / 75% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Dominic Fletcher has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.80 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+14.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+13.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+12.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 46 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 39 games (+4.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 27-20 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 11.12% ROI).
- 27-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 13.98% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 1.82% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -9.64% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 18-28 against the Run Line (-16.3 Units / -27.12% ROI).
- 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -12.82% ROI
- 20-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -12.12% ROI
- 24-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.32% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has a strikeout rate of just 11% (13 SO in 115 PAs) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .588 (10-for-17) against Tommy Henry on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .358 — second Percentile.
Tommy Henry has struck out just 13% (12/91) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Tommy Henry has allowed an OBP of .357 (42 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .274 — 13th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (125 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.6 MPH on inside pitches since last season (256 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 85.5
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.0 MPH (139 batted balls) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0 — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,937/4,431) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are just 87-7 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Diamondbacks are just 20-11 (.645) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Diamondbacks are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Diamondbacks are 20-1 (.952) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are just 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Phillies are just 1-17 (.056) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Phillies are just 94-7 (.931) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Phillies are just 4-10 (.286) after a road loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .458.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/7,738) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 234 strikeouts in 1,220 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 25% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,184 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .238 (300 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 75% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 16 double plays in 305 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,096 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
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