- The Diamondbacks are -118 favorites vs the Pirates
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Pirates TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-118) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-102) on Friday, July 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 50-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 52-49 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 6-2, 3.51 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 1-3, 4.73 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -118 | -118 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -170 | U 9 -102 | -102 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+18.80 Units / 188% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+14.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.30 Units / 59% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 87 games (+17.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 87 games (+17.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+7.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 102 games (+22.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+16.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+9.09 Units / 22% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 49-54 against the Run Line (-10.76 Units / -8.13% ROI).
- 50-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -11.54% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.85% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -11.38% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 52-49 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -3.51% ROI).
- 42-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.2 Units / -13.31% ROI
- 41-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.85 Units / -20.99% ROI
- 59-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.3 Units / 12.66% ROI
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 24% (5 SO in 21 PAs) with two-strikes in his last two starts — 6th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a BABIP of .182 vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .163 (24-for-147) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (9-for-90) against Ryne Nelson’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .215 — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 26 ABs ending on a two-strike changeup from Michael Burrows. — tied with Brandon Woodruff for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (84/378) against Michael Burrows this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Michael Burrows has walked 16% of batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (40/133) against Michael Burrows this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 44-9 (.830) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 41-11 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .878.
The Diamondbacks are just 28-91 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Diamondbacks are just 46-4 (.920) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Pirates are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 9-60 (.130) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Pirates are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are averaging just 3.63 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .463 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .443 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .780 (7,082 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .129 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .569 (597 PA’s) this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out just 7% of left-handed batters they faced over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH since the 2023 season (10,993 balls in play) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
More MLB Reading:
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