- The Diamondbacks are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Pirates TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Saturday, July 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 51-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 53-49 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 9-5, 3.32 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 4-9, 5.05 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 +100 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -120 | +110 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+18.80 Units / 188% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+17.30 Units / 87% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 88 games (+17.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 88 games (+16.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 103 games (+23.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 66 games (+15.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+9.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games at home (+9.09 Units / 21% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 49-55 against the Run Line (-11.76 Units / -8.81% ROI).
- 51-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -15 Units / -10.74% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 1.91% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -10.39% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 53-49 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -2.74% ROI).
- 42-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.3 Units / -14.14% ROI
- 41-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.9 Units / -21.71% ROI
- 60-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.3 Units / 13.41% ROI
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 17% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .478 (11-for-23) against Merrill Kelly in late innings this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 19% of batters in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .198 (42-for-212) against Merrill Kelly this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 88th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.653 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .700 — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.371 (50 PA’s) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .727 — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .911 (41 Total Bases / 45 ABs) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .419 — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has an ERA of 14.00 (9.0 IP) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 4.15 — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 44-9 (.830) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 46-4 (.920) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
The Diamondbacks are 109-30 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Diamondbacks are just 41-11 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .878.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 11-73 (.131) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates are just 9-60 (.130) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Pirates are just 1-52 (.019) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .459 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .445 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .791 (2,822 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .441 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .584 (1,834 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .275 (1,834 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have 122 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (20 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
More MLB Reading:
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