• The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
• Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Diamondbacks / Pirates TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on July 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 55-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 53-51 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 8-8, 5.14 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 6-7, 4.91 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+20.05 Units / 43% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.65 Units / 54% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+11.40 Units / 114% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+17.45 Units / 175% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.25 Units / 49% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 52% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+14.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+8.65 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+16.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 56-47 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.25% ROI).

• 55-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 3.83% ROI
• 45-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -13.01% ROI
• 55-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 5.11% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 53-51 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.3% ROI).

• 54-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -4.8% ROI
• 61-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +14.95 Units / 12.82% ROI
• 42-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.9 Units / -21.36% ROI

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Diamondbacks are 23-13 (.639) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Pirates (second in runs scored).

The Diamondbacks are 48-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Diamondbacks are 23-13 (.639) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2025 season Today, they face the Pirates (second in runs scored).

The Diamondbacks were just 67-13 (.838) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Pirates are 41-11 (.788) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Pirates are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Pirates are just 23-30 (.434) after a win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

The Pirates are 31-21 (.596) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 16% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 42% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are batting .276 against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .802 (2,096 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,933 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers put 41% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have allowed 1.75 runs per game (186/106) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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