- The Diamondbacks (26-27) are +100 favorites vs the Pirates (22-28)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies (2-3), 4.84 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (1-0), 2.54 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 25-25 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s matchup with 78.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.35 Units / 64% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+6.35 Units / 87% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+5.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+7.85 Units / 131% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1H Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1H Total Over in 26 of their last 49 games (+5.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 32-21 against the Run Line (+9.9 Units / 14.61% ROI).
- 26-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 8.68% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -15.04% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 5.26% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 25-25 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -5.3% ROI).
- 22-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 7.26% ROI
- 20-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -13.27% ROI
- 25-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 5.04% ROI
Zachary Davies: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his pitches away 71% of the time (149/210) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Davies has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (117/210) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (264/412) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his breaking pitches away 79% of the time (44/56) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 76-20 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are 3-21 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .069.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are 9-1 (.900) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 69-17 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Pirates are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.
The Pirates are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Pirates are just 21-24 (.467) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .213 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (4,079 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 239 of 2,356 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 180 of 1,840 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Pirates pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Pirates pitchers have walked 191 of 1,933 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
- Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D10
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