Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2022, 2:01 PM
  • The Diamondbacks (26-27) are +100 favorites vs the Pirates (22-28)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies (2-3), 4.84 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (1-0), 2.54 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 25-25 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks-1.5 +155O 8.5 -115+100
Pirates +1.5 -190U 8.5 -105-120

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s matchup with 78.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.35 Units / 64% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+6.35 Units / 87% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+5.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+7.85 Units / 131% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1H Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.45 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1H Total Over in 26 of their last 49 games (+5.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 32-21 against the Run Line (+9.9 Units / 14.61% ROI).

  • 26-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 8.68% ROI
  • 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -15.04% ROI
  • 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 5.26% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 25-25 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -5.3% ROI).

  • 22-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 7.26% ROI
  • 20-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -13.27% ROI
  • 25-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 5.04% ROI

Zach Davies has located his pitches away 71% of the time (149/210) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (117/210) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (264/412) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his breaking pitches away 79% of the time (44/56) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Diamondbacks are just 76-20 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Diamondbacks are 3-21 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .069.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are 9-1 (.900) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Pirates are just 69-17 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Pirates are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.

The Pirates are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Pirates are just 21-24 (.467) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

 

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .213 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (4,079 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 239 of 2,356 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 180 of 1,840 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Pirates pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Pirates pitchers have walked 191 of 1,933 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.