Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 05, 2022, 10:12 AM
  • The Diamondbacks (26-28) are -150 favorites vs the Pirates (23-28)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (4-0), 2.32 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (2-4), 5.17 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Sunday, June 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 26-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 25-26 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks-1.5 +115O 7.5 -105-150
Pirates +1.5 -140U 7.5 -115+125

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s matchup with 78.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.35 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.15 Units / 98% ROI)
  • Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+4.90 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 43 games (+7.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+6.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Total Over in 17 of their last 32 games (+4.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+8.85 Units / 122% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1H Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.15 Units / 77% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 33-21 against the Run Line (+10.9 Units / 15.65% ROI).

  • 26-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 6.8% ROI
  • 23-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -16.48% ROI
  • 30-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 6.82% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 25-26 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -6.78% ROI).

  • 23-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 8.93% ROI
  • 20-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -14.82% ROI
  • 26-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.69% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting just .134 (11-for-82) against Zac Gallen this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 96th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .583 (33 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.012 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .172 (5-for-29) against Zac Gallen when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — 97th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 35 opportunities (0%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.

Zachary Thompson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (12/95) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has a strike rate of just 60% (90/151) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .300 (27-for-90) against Zach Thompson this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .248 — ninth Percentile.

Zach Thompson has allowed an OPS of .857 (98 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .704 — 10th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

No Matchup notes for this Game

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

No Matchup notes for this Game

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .194 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .451 (4,095 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .666 (2,285 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 181 of 1,849 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 240 of 2,365 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 69% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 42 of 450 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.