- The Pirates are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Saturday, May 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 25-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 24-20 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -110 | +130 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -110 | -155 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+11.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Dominic Fletcher has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 away games (+9.10 Units / 149% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 78% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 37 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games at home (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 25-20 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 7.54% ROI).
- 25-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 10.47% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 2.11% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -10.05% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 24-20 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 1.59% ROI).
- 24-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 15.32% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -6.08% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -1.24% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 3rd — Corey Kluber has the longest active streak at 10.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .724 (42 Total Bases / 58 ABs) over the last 30 days (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .423 — first Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OPS of 1.078 (65 PA’s) over the last 30 days (3 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .738 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (12/48) against Brandon Pfaadt over the last 30 days (3 games) — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 48% (23 SO in 48 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 70% (318/457) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 96th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 75% (147/196) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
67% of Mitch Keller’s strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are 18-1 (.947) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Diamondbacks are just 71-19 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 20-11 (.645) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-28 (.562) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Pirates are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .681.
The Pirates are just 4-97 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .208 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 25% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (2,331 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (4,076 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 75% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 739 of 7,886 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 279 of 3,205 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
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