- The Diamondbacks are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 26-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 24-21 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 67.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Dominic Fletcher has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+10.10 Units / 72% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+7.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 60% ROI)
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 games (+4.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 61% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 26-20 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 9.07% ROI).
- 26-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 12.55% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.1% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -7.85% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 24-21 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.17% ROI).
- 24-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 11.95% ROI
- 20-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -8.17% ROI
- 22-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.81% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .174 (15 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .128 (11-for-86) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 97th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 14 of 106 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (23/129) against Merrill Kelly this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of just 3% (1 SO in 37 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has walked 13 of 105 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .360 (9-for-25) against Roansy Contreras’ elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — fourth Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has a first-pitch strike rate of 81% (43/53) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 71-19 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 20-11 (.645) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Diamondbacks are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Pirates are just 4-98 (.039) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Pirates are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .679.
The Pirates are just 8-92 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 25% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .300 (2,252 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (2,338 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .189 on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Pirates are batting just .230 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 75% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 739 of 7,922 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,345 of 14,062 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
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