Diamondbacks vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 16

Tampa Bay Rays' Randy Arozarena bats against the New York Yankees during a baseball game Saturday, May 6, 2023, in St. Petersburg, Fla.
(AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
  • The Diamondbacks are -115 favorites vs the Rays
  • Diamondbacks vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Diamondbacks / Rays TV Channel: DBTV | BSUN

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Friday, August 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 69-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 60-60 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 8-6, 4.50 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 6-5, 3.92 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks-1.5 +155O 8 -120-110
Rays +1.5 -190U 8 +100-110

Diamondbacks vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 21 games (+41.70 Units / 199% ROI)
  • Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+17.85 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 40 games (+17.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+16.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.55 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 42 games (+16.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 35 games (+16.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 65 games (+22.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 66 games (+19.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 117 games (+25.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 111 games (+16.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+2.45 Units / 4% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 62-60 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -2.62% ROI).

  • 69-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.35 Units / 7.96% ROI
  • 66-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.25 Units / 6.11% ROI
  • 52-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.4 Units / -15.28% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 60-60 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -3.48% ROI).

  • 59-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -12 Units / -8.15% ROI
  • 54-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -11.16% ROI
  • 63-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 2.98% ROI

Rays vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel (TB) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Brandon Lowe (TB) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Joc Pederson (ARI) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Eugenio Suarez (ARI) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Ketel Marte (ARI) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Rays vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Junior Caminero (TB) 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Brandon Lowe (TB) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Christopher Morel (TB) 0.5 -200 0.5 +155
Ketel Marte (ARI) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Rays vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Eugenio Suarez (ARI) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Junior Caminero (TB) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Christopher Morel (TB) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Brandon Lowe (TB) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Rays vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryne Nelson (ARI) 5.5 +110 5.5 -145
Ryan Pepiot (TB) 5.5 +130 5.5 -165

Opponents are hitting just .207 (145-for-700) against Zac Gallen when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 91st Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .393 (11-for-28) against Zac Gallen in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .319 (223 Total Bases / 700 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 95th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .341 (151 Total Bases / 443 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — 90th Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of just .156 (12 Total Bases / 77 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .368 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .193 (90-for-466) against Ryan Pepiot since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.

Ryan Pepiot has walked 11 of 92 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Ryan Pepiot has located his fastball away 56% of the time (414/736) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Diamondbacks are 15-6 (.714) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Diamondbacks are 16-12 (.571) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .357.

The Diamondbacks are 18-104 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Diamondbacks are 53-11 (.815) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Rays are just 16-33 (.327) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.

The Rays are 56-4 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Rays are just 23-47 (.329) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.

The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .908 (515 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .737.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .908 (515 PA’s) this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .737.

The Diamondbacks have scored first in 64% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Rays hitters have an OPS of just .653 (2,343 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays pitchers have walked 254 of 3,963 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Rays vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
  • Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
  • Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
  • Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
  • Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
  • Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.