- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Diamondbacks vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 54-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 61-37 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | O 10.5 -105 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | U 10.5 -115 | -125 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+14.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.25 Units / 45% ROI)
Reds vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 39 away games (+18.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 96 games (+14.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+8.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 away games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 97 games (+22.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 76 games (+21.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 67 games (+16.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+13.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 56-41 against the Run Line (+11.2 Units / 9.12% ROI).
- 54-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.35 Units / 11.04% ROI
- 44-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -7.54% ROI
- 47-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.33% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 61-37 against the Run Line (+21.05 Units / 16.67% ROI).
- 52-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.45 Units / 13.48% ROI
- 54-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 5.48% ROI
- 44-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -14.12% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (17/65) against Tommy Henry over the last 30 days (4 games) — 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Tommy Henry has allowed three-ball counts to 19% of batters they faced (79/410 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (19/90) against Tommy Henry on breaking pitches this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (78/242) against Tommy Henry this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (26/89) against Ben Lively this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Ben Lively has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 39 opportunities (3%) this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 11% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (29/89) against Ben Lively this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .150 (3-for-20) against Ben Lively — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .237 — 89th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Diamondbacks are just 110-11 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Diamondbacks are just 93-23 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-18 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are 14-14 (.500) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Reds are just 21-46 (.313) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Reds are just 31-38 (.449) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Reds are 8-37 (.178) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Reds are 20-8 (.714) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (2,659 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .109 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,789 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Reds hitters are slugging just .153 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
Reds hitters have 20 strikeouts in 55 PA’s (36%) against LHP over the last 14 days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 327 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Gastritis, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
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