- The Diamondbacks are -115 favorites vs the Reds
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: José Ruiz
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Sunday, July 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Diamondbacks vs Reds Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 54-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 63-37 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | O 11 +100 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | U 11 -120 | -105 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 43 games (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Votto has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+15.05 Units / 64% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+13.15 Units / 77% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 74% ROI)
Reds vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Walker | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 41 away games (+18.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 98 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 99 games (+24.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+23.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+12.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 93 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 56-43 against the Run Line (+8.4 Units / 6.69% ROI).
- 54-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.2 Units / 9.1% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -7.43% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.37% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 63-37 against the Run Line (+23.65 Units / 18.37% ROI).
- 54-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.45 Units / 15.02% ROI
- 55-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.85 Units / 5.33% ROI
- 45-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.3 Units / -13.88% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Ruiz has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (115/228) of opposing batters since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Ruiz has struck out just 15% (13/85) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .529 (9-for-17) against Jose Ruiz on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — fifth Percentile.
Jose Ruiz has an ERA of 5.60 (64.1 IP)since last season — 5th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 3.43 — fifth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of 1.054 (184 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .723 — 0 Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .669 (115 Total Bases / 172 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (73 Total Bases / 166 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (109/378) against Luke Weaver since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Diamondbacks are just 110-11 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-18 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 28-13 (.683) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 93-23 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Reds are 20-8 (.714) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Reds are just 32-38 (.457) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .642.
The Reds are 34-19 (.642) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Reds are just 36-26 (.581) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .301 (2,683 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have 99 extra-base hits out of 202 total hits (49%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are 19-5 (.792) against the run line (42.0% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Reds hitters are slugging just .207 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .569.
The Reds are batting .260 on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 6.72 (75.0 IP) over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 985 of 10,130 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Reds have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Gastritis, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Gabriel Moreno (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
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