Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 06, 2022, 10:26 AM
  • The Diamondbacks (26-29) are +100 favorites vs the Reds (18-35)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (2-4), 3.31 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (2-7), 6.18 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Monday, June 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Diamondbacks vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 26-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 23-30 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks-1.5 +150O 9.5 -105+100
Reds +1.5 -185U 9.5 -115-120

Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s matchup with 60.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+9.90 Units / 106% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.10 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+12.50 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.25 Units / 98% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 44 games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1H Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+5.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 33-22 against the Run Line (+9.9 Units / 14.01% ROI).

  • 26-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 4.11% ROI
  • 23-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.75 Units / -17.95% ROI
  • 31-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 8.32% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 23-30 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -16.78% ROI).

  • 18-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.35 Units / -23.4% ROI
  • 29-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 5.73% ROI
  • 23-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -15.98% ROI

14 of Madison Bumgarner’s 26 breaking pitch strikeouts (54%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

14 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner has thrown off-speed pitches 83% of the time (167/200) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.

45 of Madison Bumgarner’s 109 breaking pitch strikeouts (41%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .921 (82 Total Bases / 89 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .534 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.056 (38 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .416 — first Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.056 (38 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .416 — first Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .636 (68 Total Bases / 107 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 0 Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Diamondbacks are just 76-21 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Diamondbacks are just 84-14 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 41-95 (.301) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Reds are just 10-15 (.400) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Reds are just 12-63 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Reds are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Reds are just 7-26 (.212) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .282 (533 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .194 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .189 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .571 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.

Reds hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .381.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .262 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .306.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .346 (4,009 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .322.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.64 (225.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Reds pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Reds pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Reds pitchers have walked 172 of 1,898 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Lower Back, D15
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Hamstring, D60
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D10
  • Max Schrock (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan India (Reds): Hamstring, D10
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Undisclosed, D60
  • Jose Israel Barrero (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.