- The Diamondbacks are -125 favorites vs the Rockies
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+105) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in Denver.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Diamondbacks vs Rockies Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 14-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 9-17 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +120 | O 11 -110 | -125 |
| Rockies | +1.5 -145 | U 11 -110 | +105 |
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 70.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kris Bryant has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Walker | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
Rockies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Kyle Freeland | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 15-11 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 7.17% ROI).
- 14-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 19.26% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -4.15% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -3.35% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 9-17 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -30.5% ROI).
- 8-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -25.13% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -19.59% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 12.16% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 13 of 50 right-handed batters (26%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 58% (132/229) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly walked 13 of 50 right-handed batters (26%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 72% of the time (78/108) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .654 (34 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .367 — third Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (385/876) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has a strikeout rate of just 7% (1 SO in 15 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (16/131) against Kyle Freeland in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Diamondbacks are just 112-23 (.830) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 102-33 (.756) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-163 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Diamondbacks are just 13-29 (.310) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Rockies are just 15-52 (.224) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Rockies are just 47-27 (.635) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Rockies are just 25-13 (.658) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Rockies are just 1-8 (.111) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .277 (428 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .300 in hitter’s counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 58 walks in 951 PA’s (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .283 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Rockies have won just 42% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Rockies are batting .270 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 106 of 972 batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies pitchers have walked 27 of 223 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Rockies pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Knee, D15
- Randal Grichuk (Rockies): Hernia, D10
- Yonathan Daza (Rockies): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
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