Diamondbacks vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2022, 10:21 AM
  • The Diamondbacks (55-66) are -125 favorites vs the Royals (50-74)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies (2-4), 3.99 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-7), 5.60 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Diamondbacks vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 54-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 57-64 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks-1.5 +125O 9 -115-125
Royals +1.5 -155U 9 -105+105

Diamondbacks vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 43 of his last 82 games (+21.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+14.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 55 of his last 82 games (+13.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 37 of his last 54 away games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.90 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 52 of his last 82 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 43 games (+19.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 away games (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 70 games (+18.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.60 Units / 60% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 68-50 against the Run Line (+14.6 Units / 9.59% ROI).

  • 54-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -3.26% ROI
  • 51-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • 62-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 3.79% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-64 against the Run Line (-18.2 Units / -11.52% ROI).

  • 50-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -7.21% ROI
  • 59-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -3.57% ROI
  • 58-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.05 Units / -5.27% ROI

Zach Davies has located his pitches away 71% of the time (291/409) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 34% of Zach Davies’ fastballs (752/2,177) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.

Zach Davies has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (574/1,076) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (532/838) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 56% (154/273) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (304/533) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 61% (673/1,105) this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed an OPS of .859 (278 PA’s) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .701 — fifth Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Diamondbacks are just 97-29 (.770) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 107-19 (.849) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 52-116 (.310) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Diamondbacks are just 29-168 (.147) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Royals are just 3-33 (.083) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Royals are just 6-53 (.102) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

The Royals are just 9-32 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Royals are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .217 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .286 (541 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 31% on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Royals hitters have just 569 strikeouts in 2,926 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .978 (2,045 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Royals hitters have just 670 strikeouts in 3,387 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Royals are batting just .169 on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,057 of 10,918 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have walked 466 of 4,791 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have allowed 1.75 runs per game (217/124) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Royals vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, Day-to-Day
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.