- The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Tigers
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+120) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Diamondbacks vs Tigers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 37-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 32-28 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -105 | -145 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -140 | U 8 -115 | +120 |
Diamondbacks vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 65.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 24 games at home (+18.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+15.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Maton has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Nick Maton has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+10.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Tigers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ketel Marte | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Tigers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake McCarthy | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Tigers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ketel Marte | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Tigers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +125 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 54 games (+11.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 65% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 37-25 against the Run Line (+12.25 Units / 16.01% ROI).
- 37-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.95 Units / 17.75% ROI
- 29-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -6.41% ROI
- 30-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.64% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 32-28 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.46% ROI).
- 26-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.23% ROI
- 30-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -3.13% ROI
- 29-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -5.08% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 17 of 138 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (17-for-113) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .180 (23-for-128) against Merrill Kelly this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 88th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has an ERA of 1.63 (27.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.06 — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has allowed an OBP of just .080 (25 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed an OPS of just .198 (46 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .687 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.1 innings pitched — Yohan Ramirez has the longest active streak at 17.1.
Opponents are hitting just .089 (4-for-45) against Michael Lorenzen — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .235 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Diamondbacks are 28-2 (.933) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Diamondbacks are just 81-21 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Diamondbacks are just 87-15 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Tigers are 15-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Tigers are just 9-39 (.188) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Tigers are just 23-35 (.397) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Tigers are just 13-20 (.394) after a loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/8,340) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .532 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Diamondbacks are 9-1 (.900) against the run line (54.0% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .265 (1,217 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .282 (6,146 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .634 (8,132 PA’s) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .330 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .574 (696 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 174 of 1,962 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Riley Greene (Tigers): Left fibula, D10
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Alexander Faedo (Tigers): Finger, D15
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D60
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers): Finger, D10
- Matthew Vierling (Tigers): Back, D10
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Diamondbacks): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
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