- The Diamondbacks (57-67) are -115 favorites vs the White Sox (63-63)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (10-5), 2.87 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Davis Martin (2-3), 4.25 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-105) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Diamondbacks vs White Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 56-65 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 55-69 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -110 | -115 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -110 | -105 |
Diamondbacks vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 43 of his last 85 games (+18.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 56 of his last 85 games (+10.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 56 of his last 83 games (+25.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 60 of his last 85 games (+21.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 48 of his last 62 games at home (+20.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+18.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 48 of his last 85 games (+16.55 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 46 games (+20.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 away games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 68 of their last 126 games (+13.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 70-51 against the Run Line (+15.95 Units / 10.24% ROI).
- 56-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 54-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.05 Units / -10.6% ROI
- 62-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.12% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 55-69 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -10.1% ROI).
- 62-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.2% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -7.1% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.11% ROI
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 66% when ahead in the count (tied for 10th highest)– 84th Percentile and 66% when behind in the count this season (fifth lowest among qualified SPs)– eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .122 (10-for-82) against Merrill Kelly’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 21% (86/411) against Merrill Kelly this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 16th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 70% (453/648) in two strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 84th Percentile.
Davis Martin: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Diamondbacks are just 98-30 (.766) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 109-19 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 41-11 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The White Sox are just 5-47 (.096) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The White Sox are 58-16 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The White Sox are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are just 5-53 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .211 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .521 (113 PA’s) against LHP this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .279 (555 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters are slugging just .215 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
White Sox hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 254 total hits (just 29%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The White Sox are batting just .165 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .226.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .444 (262 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .651.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 11% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Robert (White Sox): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Yasmani Grandal (White Sox): Knee, D10
- Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
- Michael Kopech (White Sox): Knee, D15
- Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
- Yoán Moncada (White Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Bummer (White Sox): Lat, D15
- Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
- Leury García (White Sox): Back, D10
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
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