- The Dodgers are -160 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Dustin May
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) on Thursday, April 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 4-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 4-2 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -115 | -160 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -105 | +135 |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Hanser Alberto has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Edwin Rios has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+3.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Edwin Rios has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+3.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Will Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Beer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jordan Luplow has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| May | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 102 of their last 172 games (+26.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 95 of their last 172 games (+20.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 away games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 away games (+10.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 94 of their last 169 games (+10.40 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 168 games (+30.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 168 games (+25.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 98 of their last 168 games (+23.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 35.38% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 2.38% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -7.09% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.8% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 18.29% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 26.67% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 22.86% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -33.33% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dustin May has thrown inside pitches 54% of the time (45/84) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Dustin May has thrown inside pitches 65% of the time (15/23) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Dustin May has thrown inside pitches 58% of the time (36/62) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Dustin May has located his fastball inside 63% of the time (34/54) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .124 (47-for-380) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — 95th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 61% (362/596) of opposing batters since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — sixth Percentile.
32% of Merrill Kelly’s strikeouts are looking since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Merrill Kelly threw fastballs down 43% of the time (663/1,547) in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 95th Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Dodgers are just 1-3 (.250) when underdogs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Dodgers are 5-41 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Dodgers are just 1-3 (.250) when underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Dodgers are 26-15 (.634) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Diamondbacks are just 92-33 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Diamondbacks are just 101-23 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .706 (17 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .767 (1,950 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Dodgers hitters have drawn 6 walks in 17 PA’s (35%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 67% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have grounded into 9 double plays in 30 opportunities (30%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks are just 92-33 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Diamondbacks hitter’ K:BB ratio is 18.0 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.8.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.80 (1435.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 6 of 202 batters (3%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Ankle, D15
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Miguel Vargas (Dodgers): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D15
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Miguel Rojas (Dodgers): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Markus Betts (Dodgers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
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