Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 06, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Dodgers are -160 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Dustin May
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) on Thursday, April 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Dodgers are 4-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 4-2 ATS.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dodgers-1.5 +100O 9 -115-160
Diamondbacks +1.5 -120U 9 -105+135

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 67.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Hanser Alberto has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Edwin Rios has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+3.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Edwin Rios has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+3.05 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Will Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Justin Turner has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Seth Beer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)
  • Jordan Luplow has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nick Ahmed has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +1050 0.5
Christian Walker 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Gabriel Moreno 0.5 +1100 0.5
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +1400 0.5

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Christian Walker 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Gabriel Moreno 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +110 0.5 -145

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Christian Walker 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Gabriel Moreno 0.5 +210 0.5 -275
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +350 0.5 -550

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Merrill Kelly 4.5 -115 4.5 -115
May 5.5 +130 5.5 -175
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 102 of their last 172 games (+26.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 95 of their last 172 games (+20.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 away games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 away games (+10.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 94 of their last 169 games (+10.40 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 168 games (+30.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 168 games (+25.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 98 of their last 168 games (+23.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 35.38% ROI).

  • 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 2.38% ROI
  • 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -7.09% ROI
  • 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.8% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 18.29% ROI).

  • 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 26.67% ROI
  • 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 22.86% ROI
  • 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -33.33% ROI

Dustin May has thrown inside pitches 54% of the time (45/84) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.

Dustin May has thrown inside pitches 65% of the time (15/23) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Dustin May has thrown inside pitches 58% of the time (36/62) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.

Dustin May has located his fastball inside 63% of the time (34/54) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents batted just .124 (47-for-380) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — 95th Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 61% (362/596) of opposing batters since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — sixth Percentile.

32% of Merrill Kelly’s strikeouts are looking since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.

Merrill Kelly threw fastballs down 43% of the time (663/1,547) in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 95th Percentile.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Dodgers are just 1-3 (.250) when underdogs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.

The Dodgers are 5-41 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Dodgers are just 1-3 (.250) when underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Dodgers are 26-15 (.634) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Diamondbacks are just 92-33 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.

The Diamondbacks are just 101-23 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.

The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .706 (17 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .767 (1,950 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.

Dodgers hitters have drawn 6 walks in 17 PA’s (35%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 67% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Diamondbacks hitters have grounded into 9 double plays in 30 opportunities (30%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are just 92-33 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.

Diamondbacks hitter’ K:BB ratio is 18.0 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.8.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.80 (1435.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Dodgers pitchers have walked 6 of 202 batters (3%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
  • Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Ankle, D15
  • Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Miguel Vargas (Dodgers): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D15
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D15
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Rojas (Dodgers): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • Markus Betts (Dodgers): Ankle, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.