- The Dodgers are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Dodgers vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 84-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 62-75 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +115 | O 7.5 -105 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 7.5 -115 | +120 |
Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+19.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+15.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+15.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+15.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+13.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 43% ROI)
Marlins vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Marlins vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +110 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 110 games (+24.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 63 away games (+21.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.04 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.18 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games at home (+4.37 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+4.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 77-59 against the Run Line (+20.8 Units / 12.71% ROI).
- 84-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 2.75% ROI
- 77-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +18.5 Units / 12.3% ROI
- 53-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -30.85 Units / -20.71% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 62-75 against the Run Line (-27.95 Units / -15.44% ROI).
- 70-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -2.69% ROI
- 61-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.65 Units / -10.56% ROI
- 70-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 1.91% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 57% of the time (372/648) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 61% of the time (629/1,023) when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 57% of the time (181/317) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 59 opportunities (22%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .079 (3-for-38) against Jesus Luzardo — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 23% of batters they faced (185/819 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .067 (2-for-30) against Jesus Luzardo — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 28% (175 SO in 619 PAs) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 87th Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Dodgers are 36-15 (.706) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Dodgers are 172-27 (.864) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Dodgers are 72-7 (.911) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Dodgers are 36-16 (.692) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Marlins are just 25-45 (.357) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Marlins are just 96-24 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
The Marlins are just 18-71 (.202) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 13-134 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .790 (8,319 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 17 double plays in 350 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .339 (8,319 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .772 (3,524 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have 81 extra-base hits out of 306 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have walked 389 of 5,065 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (1279.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (2664.0 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Lat, D15
- Maxwell Muncy (Dodgers): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Kelly (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Groin, D10
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
- Jonathan Deluca (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
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