- The Dodgers are -115 favorites vs the Padres
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-105) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 19-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 17-15 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 63.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+8.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+7.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.95 Units / 99% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.50 Units / 32% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 16-16 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 5.91% ROI).
- 19-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -5.29% ROI
- 19-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 16.64% ROI
- 12-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.5 Units / -24.25% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 17-15 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.51% ROI).
- 17-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -8.03% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -16.85% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 8.38% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Clayton Kershaw’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has allowed an OBP of just .208 (144 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 98th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 59% of the time (245/416) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 61% of Clayton Kershaw’s non-fastballs (206/336) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .105 (12-for-114) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .169 (46-for-272) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of just .415 (267 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .647 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has a strikeout rate of 41% (14 SO in 34 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 97th Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 6-52 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Dodgers are 9-50 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Dodgers are 54-5 (.915) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Dodgers are 99-7 (.934) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 22-25 (.468) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Padres are 13-2 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Padres are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Padres are just 4-70 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .780 (2,284 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Dodgers hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .453 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .863 (389 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 93 walks in 799 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 507 walks in 5,147 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters are slugging just .352 on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have walked 83 of 1,188 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 490 of 7,053 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.37 runs per game (320/95) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.06 (1554.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 38% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 192 batters (5%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Back, D10
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