- The Dodgers are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 18-16 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -110 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -110 | -115 |
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- James Outman has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 34 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Urias | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 17-17 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 5.47% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -5.27% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 9.83% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -17.45% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 18-16 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -8.16% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -21.65% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 13.32% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (142/195) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 72% (1,002/1,382) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has struck out 47% (8/17) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has located his pitches away 62% of the time (83/133) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (61/188) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 13 of 349 right-handed batters (4%) since last season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.9 MPH against his fastballs since last season (188 balls in play) — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 90.4
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Dodgers are just 0-8 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Dodgers are 62-35 (.639) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Dodgers are 105-5 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Padres are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Dodgers are batting just .191 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .777 (2,310 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Dodgers hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 12 double plays in 238 opportunities (5%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Padres hitters have 215 strikeouts in 846 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have drawn 101 walks in 846 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 515 walks in 5,194 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have walked 504 of 7,129 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (854.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.06 (1571.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.36 runs per game (326/97) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 215 batters (6%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have walked 5 of 98 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Back, D10
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