- The Dodgers (95-43) are -130 favorites vs the Padres (77-63)
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney (2-2), 2.94 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (9-6), 3.16 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+110) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Dodgers are 93-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 61-76 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -105 | -130 |
| Padres | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -115 | +110 |
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 75 games (+17.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 87 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 49 of his last 71 away games (+14.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games at home (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
| Andrew Heaney | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Dodgers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+16.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 80 of their last 134 games (+11.88 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 83-52 against the Run Line (+28.1 Units / 17.35% ROI).
- 93-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.6 Units / 3.16% ROI
- 58-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -15 Units / -10.08% ROI
- 66-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 1.35% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 61-76 against the Run Line (-19.65 Units / -11.61% ROI).
- 75-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -4.59% ROI
- 67-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -3.11% ROI
- 66-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -5.16% ROI
Andrew Heaney: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Andrew Heaney breaking pitch was August 18th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 23.
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.024 (284 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .770 — 0 Percentile.
The last hit on a Andrew Heaney slider was August 18th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his slider. — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 23.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% (64/248) against Andrew Heaney on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has thrown breaking pitches 64% of the time (1,009/1,583) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 36% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,236/2,848) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (162/628) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has an average spin rate of 2552.4 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 2222.3 — 100th Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 48-18 (.727) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Dodgers are 127-50 (.718) at home since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Dodgers are 23-85 (.213) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Dodgers are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Padres are 62-20 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Padres are 7-45 (.135) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .788 (3,820 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 72% at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,605 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .532 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Padres hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have drawn 774 walks in 8,138 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (625.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1342.0 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH since the start of last season (6,858 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
The Dodgers have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 77 of 1,250 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Price (Dodgers): Wrist, D15
- Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Brusdar Graterol (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
- Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
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