Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Dodgers (95-43) are -130 favorites vs the Padres (77-63)
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney (2-2), 2.94 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (9-6), 3.16 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+110) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Dodgers are 93-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 61-76 ATS.

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dodgers-1.5 +125O 8 -105-130
Padres +1.5 -155U 8 -115+110

Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 75 games (+17.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 87 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 49 of his last 71 away games (+14.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games at home (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Josh Bell 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Juan Soto 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Josh Bell 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Juan Soto 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -140 0.5 +100

Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Josh Bell 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
Andrew Heaney 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+16.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 80 of their last 134 games (+11.88 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.45 Units / 10% ROI)

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 83-52 against the Run Line (+28.1 Units / 17.35% ROI).

  • 93-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.6 Units / 3.16% ROI
  • 58-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -15 Units / -10.08% ROI
  • 66-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 1.35% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 61-76 against the Run Line (-19.65 Units / -11.61% ROI).

  • 75-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -4.59% ROI
  • 67-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -3.11% ROI
  • 66-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -5.16% ROI

The last hit on a Andrew Heaney breaking pitch was August 18th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 23.

Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.024 (284 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .770 — 0 Percentile.

The last hit on a Andrew Heaney slider was August 18th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his slider. — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 23.

Opponents have a miss rate of 26% (64/248) against Andrew Heaney on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Musgrove has thrown breaking pitches 64% of the time (1,009/1,583) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 36% — 97th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,236/2,848) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (162/628) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has an average spin rate of 2552.4 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 2222.3 — 100th Percentile.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 48-18 (.727) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Dodgers are 127-50 (.718) at home since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Dodgers are 23-85 (.213) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Dodgers are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

The Padres are 62-20 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Padres are 7-45 (.135) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

Dodgers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .788 (3,820 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 72% at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,605 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.

Padres hitters are slugging just .532 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Padres hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have drawn 774 walks in 8,138 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (625.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1342.0 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

The Dodgers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH since the start of last season (6,858 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

The Dodgers have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have walked 77 of 1,250 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • David Price (Dodgers): Wrist, D15
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Brusdar Graterol (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.