- The Dodgers (106-48) are -145 favorites vs the Padres (86-68)
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías (17-7), 2.25 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (10-7), 3.12 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+120) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Dodgers are 106-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 69-85 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +120 | O 7.5 -120 | -145 |
| Padres | +1.5 -145 | U 7.5 +100 | +120 |
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 44 away games (+15.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 away games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Austin Barnes has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+13.15 Units / 57% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 77 away games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 58 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+10.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
| Julio Urias | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Dodgers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 67 away games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 93-61 against the Run Line (+27.65 Units / 14.89% ROI).
- 106-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.9 Units / 3.51% ROI
- 65-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -12.32% ROI
- 78-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 3.68% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 69-85 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -11.51% ROI).
- 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -3.82% ROI
- 72-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -7.72% ROI
- 78-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.62% ROI
Julio Urías: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (755 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 90.7
Julio Urias has walked 8 of 323 left-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (895/1,230) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (139/440) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
43% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 91st Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 11 of 314 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 91st Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,295/3,002) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.5 MPH this season (466 balls in play) — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 77-4 (.951) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Dodgers are 95-18 (.841) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Dodgers are 53-21 (.716) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Dodgers are 45-11 (.804) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 68-7 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Padres are 29-10 (.744) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Padres are 30-9 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 70-22 (.761) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .767 (3,667 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .787 (4,256 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (4,256 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters are slugging .239 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Padres are batting just .235 at home since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers have allowed 2.95 runs per game (233/79) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.59 (699.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.29 runs per game (526/160) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.83 (1416.1 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers this month (22 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 83 of 1,376 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Back, D15
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
- Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
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