Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Dodgers (106-48) are -145 favorites vs the Padres (86-68)
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías (17-7), 2.25 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (10-7), 3.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+120) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Dodgers are 106-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 69-85 ATS.

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dodgers-1.5 +120O 7.5 -120-145
Padres +1.5 -145U 7.5 +100+120

Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 44 away games (+15.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 away games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Austin Barnes has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+13.15 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 77 away games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 58 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+10.40 Units / 28% ROI)

Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Brandon Drury 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Josh Bell 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Brandon Drury 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Josh Bell 0.5 -175 0.5 +125

Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Brandon Drury 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Josh Bell 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
Julio Urias 4.5 -110 4.5 -125
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 67 away games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.20 Units / 16% ROI)

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 93-61 against the Run Line (+27.65 Units / 14.89% ROI).

  • 106-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.9 Units / 3.51% ROI
  • 65-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -12.32% ROI
  • 78-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 3.68% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 69-85 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -11.51% ROI).

  • 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -3.82% ROI
  • 72-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -7.72% ROI
  • 78-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.62% ROI

Julio Urias has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (755 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 90.7

Julio Urias has walked 8 of 323 left-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (895/1,230) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (139/440) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

43% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 91st Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has walked 11 of 314 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 91st Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,295/3,002) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.5 MPH this season (466 balls in play) — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 77-4 (.951) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Dodgers are 95-18 (.841) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Dodgers are 53-21 (.716) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Dodgers are 45-11 (.804) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are 68-7 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Padres are 29-10 (.744) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Padres are 30-9 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are 70-22 (.761) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Dodgers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .767 (3,667 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .787 (4,256 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (4,256 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters are slugging .239 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Padres are batting just .235 at home since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Dodgers have allowed 2.95 runs per game (233/79) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.59 (699.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

The Dodgers have allowed 3.29 runs per game (526/160) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.83 (1416.1 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers this month (22 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have walked 83 of 1,376 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Dustin May (Dodgers): Back, D15
  • Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.