- The Dodgers are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Watch the game on NESN
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Saturday, August 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Dodgers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 79-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 66-63 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +125 | O 10 -110 | -130 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -150 | U 10 -110 | +110 |
Dodgers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+16.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 42 games (+16.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+13.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+13.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 74% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Red Sox vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Pablo Reyes | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Pablo Reyes | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pablo Reyes | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Urias | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| James Paxton | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 101 games (+21.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 away games (+19.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+4.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.24 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 71-56 against the Run Line (+17.8 Units / 11.67% ROI).
- 79-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 2.54% ROI
- 71-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +15.9 Units / 11.33% ROI
- 50-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -27.35 Units / -19.64% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 66-63 against the Run Line (-4.85 Units / -2.88% ROI).
- 68-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 2.04% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.42% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -10.02% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has not walked any of the 124 batters that he has faced versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (14/110) against Julio Urias on breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (266/787) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (110/310) when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (65 Total Bases / 110 ABs) over the last 30 days (5 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .409 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .336 (37-for-110) against James Paxton over the last 30 days (5 games) — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — second Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OPS of .969 (121 PA’s) over the last 30 days (5 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .713 — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 67% of James Paxton’s pitches (326/485) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 99th Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Dodgers are 167-26 (.865) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Dodgers are 67-6 (.918) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Dodgers are 35-15 (.700) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Dodgers are 34-14 (.708) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Red Sox are 55-2 (.965) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
The Red Sox are 51-3 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
The Red Sox are 32-30 (.516) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters are slugging .448 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Dodgers have scored 471 runs in innings 7-9 since last season — most in MLB.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .771 (3,416 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .696.
The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 69% at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .372 (582 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Red Sox are batting .287 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Red Sox are batting .297 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers have won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Dodgers have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Dodgers pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 374 of 4,889 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 80 of 1,142 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.07 (954.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Lat, D15
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Kelly (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Groin, D10
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
- Jonathan Deluca (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Shelby Miller (Dodgers): Neck, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
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