Tarik Skubal will make his first start for the Los Angeles Dodgers when they face the Chicago Cubs at 8:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Wrigley Field in Chicago on TBS.
Skubal, who has won consecutive Cy Young trophies, has fully embraced his role as a new villain after being traded by the Detroit Tigers over the weekend.
Get my Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction based on the latest MLB odds:
Dodgers vs. Cubs Prediction for Aug. 4
- Tarik Skubal over 1.5 earned runs
For my Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction, I plan to fade Skubal in his debut by taking the over on his earned runs allowed (1.5) prop entering tonight’s matchup.
Skubal might have been the best player moved at the deadline, but it’s important to remember that the Dodgers added him to their rotation to boost their chances of winning a third straight World Series. There will be an adjustment period for Skubal with his new team, but Los Angeles hopes to have the peak version of him in October.
At this point in the regular season, Skubal has appeared more mortal. He’s made eight starts since returning from a month-long absence, allowing multiple earned runs in five of those outings. He has a 3.04 ERA and a 3.08 FIP over that span.
More importantly, Skubal’s velocity is down this year. According to Baseball Savant, Skubal’s average fastball velocity of 96.7 miles per hour ranks in the 83rd percentile. For comparison, he ranked in the 97th percentile with an average fastball velocity of 97.4 in 2025.
In addition, it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Cubs are the best offensive team in the majors against left-handed pitchers, posting a wRC+ of 122 this season.
Look, I’m obviously splitting hairs. Skubal is still one of the best pitchers in the sport, and his addition further separates Los Angeles from the pack. But that’s why there is more value in fading his immediate impact with his new team.
Prediction: Tarik Skubal over 1.5 earned runs
Dodgers vs. Cubs Odds: Tuesday, Aug. 4
- Dodgers moneyline: -220
- Cubs moneyline: +180
- Total: 8.5
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