Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 11, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Giants are -145 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
  • Giants starting pitcher: Alexander Cobb
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The San Francisco Giants (-145) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) on Thursday, May 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Giants are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Giants vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Giants are 16-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 20-17 ATS.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Giants-1.5 +110O 9.5 -115-145
Diamondbacks +1.5 -135U 9.5 -105+120

Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Thairo Estrada has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games at home (+8.95 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Gabriel Moreno has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 75% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 +1050 0.5
Christian Walker 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Pavin Smith 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
J.D. Davis 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Diamondbacks vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 1.5 +185 1.5 -250
Christian Walker 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Pavin Smith 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -275 0.5 +210
J.D. Davis 0.5 -225 0.5 +175

Diamondbacks vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Christian Walker 0.5 +130 0.5 -175
Pavin Smith 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
J.D. Davis 0.5 +155 0.5 -200

Diamondbacks vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Cobb 4.5 -110 4.5 -120
Tommy Henry 4.5 +100 4.5 -135
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+5.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games (+3.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 17-19 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -9.44% ROI).

  • 16-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -17.76% ROI
  • 17-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -7.35% ROI
  • 18-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.9% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 20-17 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 4.93% ROI).

  • 20-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 11.1% ROI
  • 19-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 3.42% ROI
  • 16-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -11.7% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (78/123) against Alex Cobb this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (41/64) against Alex Cobb this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (31/47) against Alex Cobb in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (346/557) against Alex Cobb since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tommy Henry has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (19/40) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Tommy Henry has a strikeout rate of just 10% (7 SO in 67 PAs) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Tommy Henry has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (68/223) this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 91st Percentile.

Tommy Henry has an average fastball velocity of just 90.5 MPH this season — tied for 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — ninth Percentile.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

keys to the game – away

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Diamondbacks are just 19-10 (.655) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Diamondbacks are just 33-27 (.550) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Diamondbacks are just 82-7 (.921) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Diamondbacks are just 67-18 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

Giants hitters have an OPS of .789 (949 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Giants are batting .371 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Giants hitters have 238 strikeouts in 949 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Giants hitters are slugging .500 on breaking pitches against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .371.

Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

The Diamondbacks have barrels in 3% of PA’s since last season (197/7,350) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .512 (140 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Giants have allowed 1.97 runs per game (71/36) in late innings this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.

Giants pitchers have walked 101 of 1,383 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 11 of 220 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
  • Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
  • Robert Wood (Giants): Hamstring, D15
  • Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Darin Ruf (Giants): Wrist, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Slater (Giants): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
  • Brandon Crawford (Giants): Calf, D10
  • Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
  • Michael Yastrzemski (Giants): Hamstring, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.