- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants starting pitcher: Anthony DeSclafani
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Watch the game on SNY
The San Francisco Giants (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Giants vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Giants are 46-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 31-51 ATS.
Giants vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 +100 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -120 | -145 |
Giants vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Wilmer Flores has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+13.35 Units / 95% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+12.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Mets vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Mets vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 away games (+5.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 44-38 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 4.39% ROI).
- 46-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 4.21% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -7.84% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.28% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 31-51 against the Run Line (-26.8 Units / -25.67% ROI).
- 36-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.15 Units / -24.22% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -14.91% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 5.98% ROI
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Anthony DeSclafani has a strike rate of just 57% when ahead in the count (tied for 10th lowest)– 15th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (eighth highest among qualified SPs)– 88th Percentile.
Anthony DeSclafani has thrown off-speed pitches 66% of the time (245/374) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a slugging percentage of just .158 (6 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 96th Percentile.
Anthony DeSclafani has thrown his slider 44% of the time (611/1,380) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (22/51) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .491 (429 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .705 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a first-pitch strike rate of just 46% (53/116) over the last 30 days (5 games) — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .555 (904 PA’s) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 98th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Giants are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Giants are 10-26 (.278) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Giants are 10-6 (.625) after a home loss this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Giants are 30-23 (.566) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Mets are just 24-15 (.615) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Mets are 121-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 4-88 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Mets are 120-7 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters have 8 strikeouts in 14 PA’s (57%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Giants are batting .376 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Giants hitters have 710 strikeouts in 2,789 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Giants are hitting .318 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have won just 50% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Mets are batting just .230 at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (4,925 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 225 of 3,093 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 60 of 500 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Scott Alexander (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Yastrzemski (Giants): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Conforto (Giants): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Heliot Ramos (Giants): Oblique, D60
- John Brebbia (Giants): Lat, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Forearm, D60
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
- Luke Jackson (Giants): Back, D15
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