- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants starting pitcher: Alexander Cobb
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Francisco Giants (+120) visit Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Sunday, April 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Mexico City.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 19.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Giants are 11-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 14-14 ATS.
Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -130 | O 19.5 -110 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | U 19.5 -110 | -145 |
Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- David Villar has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 28 games (+11.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Joc Pederson | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -165 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -120 |
Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Alex Cobb | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 12-14 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -11.7% ROI).
- 11-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -21.59% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -1.21% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -7.43% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 14-14 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -8.28% ROI).
- 14-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -12.47% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -11.64% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 3.13% ROI
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .295 (18-for-61) against Alex Cobb with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — first Percentile.
Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 52% of the time (106/205) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 66% (73/111) against Alex Cobb when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (165/272) against Alex Cobb since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — Hunter Brown has the longest active streak at 54.1.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (70-for-448) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .194 (258 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has walked 7 of 50 batters (14%) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 53-63 (.457) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Giants are just 2-4 (.333) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Giants are 1-12 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Giants are just 2-10 (.167) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are just 3-70 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Padres are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Padres are 37-15 (.712) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters have 278 strikeouts in 1,013 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Giants hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Giants hitters have 586 strikeouts in 2,291 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Giants are batting just .222 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .232 at home since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters are slugging just .352 on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Padres are batting just .198 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .662 (530 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Giants pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 248 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.11 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Robert Wood (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Giants): Wrist, D10
- Luke Jackson (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Austin Slater (Giants): Elbow, D10
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Bryce Johnson (Giants): Concussion, D7
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Sean Manaea (Giants): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Crawford (Giants): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
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