- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants starting pitcher: –
- Padres starting pitcher: Pedro Avila
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Francisco Giants (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Thursday, August 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Giants are 68-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 64-70 ATS.
Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 36 games (+21.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+18.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+18.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+14.70 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+21.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 46 games (+18.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+14.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Thairo Estrada | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Patrick Bailey | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Thairo Estrada | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Patrick Bailey | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Thairo Estrada | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Patrick Bailey | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Avila | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+18.44 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+13.48 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 56 away games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 29 games (+4.16 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 127 games (+14.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 124 games (+13.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 42 games at home (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.91 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 80 games (+2.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 64-68 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -5% ROI).
- 68-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -3.72% ROI
- 55-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.35 Units / -18.62% ROI
- 74-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.35 Units / 9.99% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 64-70 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -7.11% ROI).
- 62-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -36.5 Units / -18.51% ROI
- 54-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.25 Units / -16.26% ROI
- 70-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.1 Units / 7.6% ROI
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Walker has walked 4 of 77 left-handed batters (5%) this season — tied for 5th best among in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 95th Percentile.
Ryan Walker’s K:BB ratio is 6.0 (24/4) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best among in MLB; League Avg: 2.5 — 96th Percentile.
Ryan Walker has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to July 26th — Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 12.
Ryan Walker has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (115/205) this season — 8th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 62% — ninth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 76% (19/25) against Pedro Avila — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Pedro Avila has 6 three-pitch strikeouts over the last 30 days (6 games) — tied for most among in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 70% (16/23) against Pedro Avila over the last 30 days (6 games) — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 31-28 (.525) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Giants are 58-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Giants are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Giants are 19-14 (.576) after a win as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .436.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .436.
The Padres are just 6-12 (.333) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Padres are just 10-23 (.303) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters are slugging just .243 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Giants hitters are slugging just .396 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Giants are batting just .152 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .687 (1,468 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 405 walks in 3,660 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .236 at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Padres hitters have drawn 135 walks in 1,423 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 76 of 1,186 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,208 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 39% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 46% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Allen Pollock (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Mark Mathias (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- John Brebbia (Giants): Lat, D60
- Brandon Crawford (Giants): Forearm, D10
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Arm, D60
- Cole Waites (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Stripling (Giants): Back, D15
- Michael Conforto (Giants): Hamstring, D10
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