Giants vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (49-37) are -120 favorites vs the Giants (42-41)
  • Giants starting pitcher: Robert Wood (5-7), 4.82 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (4-3), 3.18 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Francisco Giants (+100) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Giants are 42-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 43-43 ATS.

Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Giants+1.5 -200O 8 -115+100
Padres -1.5 +165U 8 -105-120

Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Giants and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+7.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+3.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+3.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brent Rooker 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jose Azocar 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Manny Machado 0.5 +300 0.5 -550

Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brent Rooker 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Jose Azocar 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Manny Machado 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brent Rooker 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Jose Azocar 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Manny Machado 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Wood 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Mackenzie Gore 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+10.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 61 games (+9.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (+5.05 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 85 games (+0.75 Units / 1% ROI)

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 40-43 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -5.48% ROI).

  • 42-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.9 Units / -12.61% ROI
  • 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -2.3% ROI
  • 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -7% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI).

  • 49-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 3.1% ROI
  • 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.05 Units / -12.85% ROI
  • 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 4.12% ROI

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (85/248) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (208/646) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (221/711) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (234/692) against Alex Wood on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .115 (7 Total Bases / 61 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 8 of 52 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .098 (6-for-61) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed at least 3 walks in each of his last six games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Giants are 19-101 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Giants are just 3-30 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .111.

The Giants are 29-5 (.853) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Giants are 20-6 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Padres are 26-18 (.591) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Padres are just 36-6 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

The Padres are 41-11 (.788) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are just 39-5 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Giants are batting just .206 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Giants are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Giants hitters have drawn 659 walks in 6,775 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Giants hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .341 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have drawn 626 walks in 6,718 PA’s (9%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,315 of their 3,961 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 636 of 9,113 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Giants pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Giants pitchers have walked 133 of 2,201 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.7

The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Padres pitchers have walked 45 of 776 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Jurickson Profar (Padres): Concussion, D7
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Evan Longoria (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Thomas La Stella (Giants): COVID-19, D10
  • José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D15
  • Jakob Junis (Giants): Groin, D15
  • Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
  • Zack Littell (Giants): Oblique, D15
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Brandon Belt (Giants): Knee, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.