Giants vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (47-36) are -145 favorites vs the Giants (41-39)
  • Giants starting pitcher: Logan Webb (7-3), 3.13 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-2), 2.25 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The San Francisco Giants (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Giants are 41-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-41 ATS.

Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Giants+1.5 -190O 6.5 +105+120
Padres -1.5 +155U 6.5 -125-145

Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Giants and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+6.30 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Tommy La Stella has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)

Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 6.5 +115 6.5 -165
Logan Webb 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 28 games (+4.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 58 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 82 games (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 82 games (+1.35 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 38-42 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -6.24% ROI).

  • 41-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.9 Units / -12.12% ROI
  • 39-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -1.02% ROI
  • 36-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -8.22% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.34% ROI).

  • 47-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 2.42% ROI
  • 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -11.98% ROI
  • 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 3.35% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (163/284) against Logan Webb this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (1,595/2,623) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Logan Webb has allowed an OPS of just .515 (237 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .673 — 96th Percentile.

Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 77% of the time (244/318) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .203 (68-for-335) against Joe Musgrove this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 88th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (6/45) against Joe Musgrove with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

42% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 86th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .158 (92-for-583) against Joe Musgrove’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 96th Percentile.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Giants are 20-5 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Giants are 33-2 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .890.

The Giants are 19-99 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Giants are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Padres are 6-25 (.194) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .110.

The Padres are just 37-5 (.881) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.

The Padres are 26-18 (.591) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.

The Padres are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Giants are batting just .213 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Giants are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Giants hitters have an OBP of just .296 (331 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Padres hitters are slugging just .345 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Padres hitters are slugging just .159 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.

The Padres have a winning percentage of 59% on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 624 of 9,005 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 131 of 2,174 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .185 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.5

The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .161 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Evan Longoria (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Thairo Estrada (Giants): Illness, D10
  • Jakob Junis (Giants): Groin, D15
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Undisclosed, D60
  • Luis González (Giants): Back, D10
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.