- The Padres (47-36) are -145 favorites vs the Giants (41-39)
- Giants starting pitcher: Logan Webb (7-3), 3.13 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-2), 2.25 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The San Francisco Giants (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Giants are 41-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-41 ATS.
Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -190 | O 6.5 +105 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 6.5 -125 | -145 |
Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 64.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wilmer Flores has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+6.30 Units / 65% ROI)
- Wilmer Flores has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tommy La Stella has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Wilmer Flores has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Wilmer Flores has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -165 |
| Logan Webb | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Giants Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 28 games (+4.60 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 58 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 82 games (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 82 games (+1.35 Units / 1% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 38-42 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -6.24% ROI).
- 41-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.9 Units / -12.12% ROI
- 39-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -1.02% ROI
- 36-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -8.22% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.34% ROI).
- 47-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 2.42% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -11.98% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 3.35% ROI
Logan Webb: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (163/284) against Logan Webb this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (1,595/2,623) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Logan Webb has allowed an OPS of just .515 (237 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .673 — 96th Percentile.
Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 77% of the time (244/318) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .203 (68-for-335) against Joe Musgrove this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (6/45) against Joe Musgrove with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
42% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (92-for-583) against Joe Musgrove’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 96th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 20-5 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Giants are 33-2 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .890.
The Giants are 19-99 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Giants are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 6-25 (.194) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .110.
The Padres are just 37-5 (.881) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Padres are 26-18 (.591) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Padres are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting just .213 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Giants are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Giants hitters have an OBP of just .296 (331 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .345 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Padres hitters are slugging just .159 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Padres have a winning percentage of 59% on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 624 of 9,005 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 131 of 2,174 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .185 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.5
The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .161 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Evan Longoria (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Thairo Estrada (Giants): Illness, D10
- Jakob Junis (Giants): Groin, D15
- Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Undisclosed, D60
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D10
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60
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