Giants vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres are -225 favorites vs the Giants
  • Giants starting pitcher: John Brebbia (6-2), 3.13 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (10-7), 3.03 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Francisco Giants (+180) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Giants are 80-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 70-88 ATS.

Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Giants+1.5 -115O 7.5 -115+180
Padres -1.5 -105U 7.5 -105-225

Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Giants and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Wynns has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+10.90 Units / 136% ROI)
  • Jason Vosler has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jason Vosler has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Lewis Brinson has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • J.D. Davis has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games at home (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Brandon Drury 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jose Azocar 0.5 +1050 0.5

Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Brandon Drury 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jose Azocar 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Brandon Drury 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jose Azocar 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -145 5.5 +105
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 106 games (+11.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 77 of their last 151 games (+10.65 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 71 of their last 134 games (+14.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games at home (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 76-83 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -7.37% ROI).

  • 80-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.05 Units / -8.76% ROI
  • 73-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -6.74% ROI
  • 77-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.18% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 70-88 against the Run Line (-24.5 Units / -12.47% ROI).

  • 87-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -5.75% ROI
  • 72-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -10% ROI
  • 82-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 1.68% ROI

John Brebbia has a strikeout rate of just 14% (16 SO in 118 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 0 Percentile.

John Brebbia has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (65 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .223 (29-for-130) against John Brebbia with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .364 (40-for-110) against John Brebbia’s low curves and sliders since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .178 — first Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,504/3,478) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .258 (17-for-66) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .336 — 95th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,326/3,066) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 40% (771/1,932) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Giants are 24-133 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Giants are 33-10 (.767) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Giants are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Giants are 62-4 (.939) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .883.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Padres are 30-11 (.732) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Padres are 45-36 (.556) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Padres are 21-2 (.913) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Padres are 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Giants are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Giants hitters are slugging .883 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.

The Giants are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 3,508 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .670 (2,850 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 176 of 2,875 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Giants pitchers have walked 849 of 11,967 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres pitchers have walked 86 of 1,422 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Gregory Santos (Giants): Groin, D60
  • Logan Webb (Giants): Undisclosed, D15
  • Brandon Belt (Giants): Knee, D60
  • Donovan Walton (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Robert Wood (Giants): Shoulder, D15
  • José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas La Stella (Giants): Neck, D10
  • Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D60
  • Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Long (Giants): Oblique, D60
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Luis González (Giants): Back, D10

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Giants and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.