- The Padres are -225 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants starting pitcher: John Brebbia (6-2), 3.13 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (10-7), 3.03 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Francisco Giants (+180) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Giants are 80-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 70-88 ATS.
Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -115 | +180 |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -105 | -225 |
Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Wynns has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+10.90 Units / 136% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Lewis Brinson has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- J.D. Davis has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games at home (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Azocar | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Azocar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Azocar | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Giants Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 106 games (+11.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 77 of their last 151 games (+10.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 71 of their last 134 games (+14.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games at home (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 76-83 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -7.37% ROI).
- 80-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.05 Units / -8.76% ROI
- 73-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 77-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.18% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 70-88 against the Run Line (-24.5 Units / -12.47% ROI).
- 87-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -5.75% ROI
- 72-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -10% ROI
- 82-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 1.68% ROI
John Brebbia: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
John Brebbia has a strikeout rate of just 14% (16 SO in 118 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 0 Percentile.
John Brebbia has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (65 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .223 (29-for-130) against John Brebbia with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (40-for-110) against John Brebbia’s low curves and sliders since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .178 — first Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,504/3,478) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .258 (17-for-66) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .336 — 95th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,326/3,066) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 40% (771/1,932) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 24-133 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Giants are 33-10 (.767) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Giants are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Giants are 62-4 (.939) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .883.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 30-11 (.732) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Padres are 45-36 (.556) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 21-2 (.913) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres are 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Giants hitters are slugging .883 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.
The Giants are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 3,508 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .670 (2,850 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 176 of 2,875 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants pitchers have walked 849 of 11,967 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 86 of 1,422 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Gregory Santos (Giants): Groin, D60
- Logan Webb (Giants): Undisclosed, D15
- Brandon Belt (Giants): Knee, D60
- Donovan Walton (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Robert Wood (Giants): Shoulder, D15
- José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Thomas La Stella (Giants): Neck, D10
- Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D60
- Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Long (Giants): Oblique, D60
- Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D10
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