- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants starting pitcher: Alexander Cobb
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on SDPA
The San Francisco Giants (+115) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Giants are 69-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 66-71 ATS.
Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Giants | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -110 | +115 |
Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -110 | -135 |
Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 39 games (+21.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+16.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+15.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.55 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 49 games (+20.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+17.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 45 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
J.D. Davis | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Joc Pederson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Brandon Crawford | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
J.D. Davis | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Joc Pederson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
J.D. Davis | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Joc Pederson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Cobb | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Seth Lugo | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+17.39 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.03 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 59 away games (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 32 games (+3.26 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 130 games (+13.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 127 games (+11.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.34 Units / 67% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 65-70 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -6.07% ROI).
- 69-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -4.18% ROI
- 57-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.5 Units / -17.63% ROI
- 75-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.3 Units / 9.06% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 66-71 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -5.93% ROI).
- 64-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.8 Units / -17.77% ROI
- 56-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.4 Units / -15.33% ROI
- 71-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 6.74% ROI
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (248/433) against Alex Cobb this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 38% of the time (884/2,317) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (567/1,183) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (516/867) against Alex Cobb since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (617/1,458) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 27% of the time (108/399) when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 94th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (405/1,016) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 18-12 (.600) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Giants are 18-11 (.621) after a home loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Giants are 19-15 (.559) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .437.
The Giants are just 30-50 (.375) after a road loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .437.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 6-12 (.333) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters are slugging just .243 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .683 (1,506 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
The Giants are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Giants are batting just .152 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .386 at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Padres hitters have drawn 820 walks in 8,051 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 788 of 11,139 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,288 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,213 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Allen Pollock (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Mark Mathias (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- John Brebbia (Giants): Lat, D60
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Arm, D60
- Cole Waites (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Stripling (Giants): Back, D15
- Michael Conforto (Giants): Hamstring, D10
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