- The Astros are -185 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Cleveland Guardians (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Guardians vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 53-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 55-52 ATS.
Guardians vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -115 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -105 | -185 |
Guardians vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 75.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Astros and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 19 games (+9.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 27 games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corey Julks has hit the Hits Under in his last 10 games (+13.10 Units / 108% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+11.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Astros vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tyler Freeman | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
Astros vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Freeman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler Freeman | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Astros vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Framber Valdez | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+15.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+10.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 56 games (+10.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 56 games (+2.30 Units / 3% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 72 games (+7.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 76 games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 54 games at home (+4.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 53-54 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 53-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 44-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.45 Units / -18.12% ROI
- 59-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 9.54% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-52 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.47% ROI).
- 60-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.37% ROI
- 53-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -4.06% ROI
- 52-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -4.77% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 35% (69/195) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts in 2022 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 33% (237/710) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon elevated 50% of his pitches (357/711) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
21 of Carlos Rodon’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (644/1,328) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (250/503) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (1,465/3,615) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (178/279) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 27-90 (.231) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Guardians are 11-33 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are 5-44 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Guardians are 15-12 (.556) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 31-38 (.449) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Astros are 48-35 (.578) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Astros are 29-18 (.617) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Astros are 68-35 (.660) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,326 strikeouts in 7,462 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 741 strikeouts in 4,044 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,863 strikeouts in 10,207 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 900 strikeouts in 5,050 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 520 strikeouts in 2,969 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .583 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .374.
Astros hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 159 of 2,421 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.85 (290.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Noah Syndergaard (Guardians): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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