- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie, 7.36 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit American Family Fields of Phoenix to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Phoenix.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Guardians vs Brewers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Guardians are 3-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 4-5 ATS.
Guardians vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -105 | +120 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 -115 | -145 |
Guardians vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 62.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games at home (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+6.12 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 3-5 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -23.71% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -25.87% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -27.53% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 21.26% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 4-5 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -22.89% ROI).
- 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -39.07% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -36.32% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 29.95% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie allowed a slugging percentage of .576 (53 Total Bases / 92 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (170/502) against Triston McKenzie last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .481 (13 GB hits out of 27 GBs) against Triston McKenzie with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (62/190) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 12% (8/68) versus Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has allowed an OPS of just .557 (654 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .689 — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has thrown fastballs 62% of the time (1,099/1,785) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 54% (116/215) against Brandon Woodruff on changeups last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 52-7 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are just 67-8 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers batted just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers hitters struck out 440 times in 1,711 PA’s (26%) against LHP last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
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