- The Cubs are -175 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Cubs TV Channel: GDTV | MARQ | TBS
The Cleveland Guardians (+155) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-185) on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Guardians are 40-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 41-43 ATS.
Guardians vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 5-3, 3.72 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 7-3, 2.65 ERA
Guardians vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -115 | +155 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -105 | -185 |
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 59.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.05 Units / 76% ROI)
- Angel Martinez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- David Fry has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+37.00 Units / 617% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+18.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matthew Boyd has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 21 away games (+13.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+11.89 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.55 Units / 64% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 82 games (+11.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.20 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+4.95 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 41-40 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -5.58% ROI).
- 40-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -2.06% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -14.85% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.65 Units / 7.27% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 41-43 against the Run Line (-2.38 Units / -2.35% ROI).
- 49-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 6.43% ROI
- 43-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 4.2% ROI
- 36-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -12.3% ROI
Cubs vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Cubs vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has allowed three-ball counts to 32% of right-handed batters he faced (59/187 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed a batting average of .294 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth worst)– ninth Percentile and just .158 vs left-handed batters this season (best among non-qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 13% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has picked-off 6 runners this season — tied for most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (256/369) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 95th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has a strikeout rate of just 8% (6 SO in 72 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .339 (21-for-62) against Matthew Boyd with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 19-0 (.950) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Guardians are 110-3 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Guardians are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Guardians are 116-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are 17-5 (.773) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Guardians (Ranks 25th runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 25-9 (.735) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Cubs are 49-35 (.583) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 70-42 (.625) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .296 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Guardians hitters have struck out in 31% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Guardians are batting just .215 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Guardians hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .477 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 21% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have drawn walks in 4% of their PA’s against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .804 (1,755 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Guardians vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
