- The Cubs are -130 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Watch the game on FOX
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-130) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 39-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-37 ATS.
Guardians vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 away games (+15.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 44 games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+14.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+14.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+13.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Cubs vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Cubs vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Marcus Stroman | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+15.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+3.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+6.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games at home (+4.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 38-43 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -5.18% ROI).
- 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -10.88% ROI
- 31-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.6 Units / -22.05% ROI
- 46-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 13.48% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 43-37 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 3.29% ROI).
- 38-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -5.75% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -5.99% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -3.14% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has walked 5 of 23 left-handed batters (22%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has walked 7 of 50 batters (14%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has walked 7 of 50 batters (14%) over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (100/156) against Marcus Stroman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (117/188) against Marcus Stroman in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 55% of the time (430/784) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .279 (103 Total Bases / 369 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 26-81 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 10-24 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are 5-32 (.135) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 18-87 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Cubs are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 1-108 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,207 strikeouts in 6,761 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 412 strikeouts in 2,177 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .288 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .435 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 138 of 2,191 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 50 of 731 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (1,950 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs pitchers have walked 47 of 708 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Neck stiffness, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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