- The Guardians are -115 favorites vs the Cubs
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Guardians vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 40-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-38 ATS.
Guardians vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -110 | -115 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -110 | -105 |
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 57.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 away games (+16.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+16.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+15.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Cubs vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Aaron Civale | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+16.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+5.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+3.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 39-43 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -4.13% ROI).
- 40-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -9.72% ROI
- 31-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -23.13% ROI
- 47-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.1 Units / 14.49% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 43-38 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 2.29% ROI).
- 38-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.8 Units / -7.01% ROI
- 38-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -7.3% ROI
- 40-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.92% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has walked 3 of 30 right-handed batters (10%) — tied for 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 5% — 11th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has located his pitches away 57% of the time (369/648) this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has walked 8 of 59 right-handed batters (14%) over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
31 of Aaron Civale’s 131 strikeouts (24%) have come on cutters since last season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 92nd Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of 1.081 (137 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .744 — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .555 (76 Total Bases / 137 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .381 — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .566 (73 Total Bases / 129 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .386 — third Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 7th — Kyle Muller has the longest active streak at 9.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 26-81 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 10-24 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Guardians are 5-32 (.135) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 18-87 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Cubs are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .608.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,220 strikeouts in 6,799 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,713 strikeouts in 9,254 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .287 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .433 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 139 of 2,200 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 51 of 740 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 48 of 717 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH (2,003 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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