- The Cubs are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Cubs TV Channel: GDTV | MARQ | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Thursday, July 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Guardians are 40-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 42-44 ATS.
Guardians vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 4-9, 4.37 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Cade Horton 3-2, 4.84 ERA
Guardians vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -180 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+11.15 Units / 139% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Angel Martinez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+35.00 Units / 438% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+18.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 23 away games (+13.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+11.69 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 away games (+2.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 84 games (+13.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 80 games (+11.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.25 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+6.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+6.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 42-41 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -5.66% ROI).
- 40-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.1% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -14.6% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 6.99% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 42-44 against the Run Line (-2.33 Units / -2.25% ROI).
- 51-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.85 Units / 7.84% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 3.99% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.55 Units / -12.12% ROI
Cubs vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Cubs vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Cubs vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Horton (CHC) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (8 Total Bases / 64 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has a in-zone of 50% (223/445) in two strike counts this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 11% of batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of 38% (30 SO in 80 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30% of Cade Horton’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (28/149) against Cade Horton this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .291 (52-for-179) against Cade Horton this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .245 — seventh Percentile.
Cade Horton has a strikeout rate of just 14% (8 SO in 59 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 11th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 19-0 (.950) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
The Guardians are 110-3 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Guardians are 103-5 (.954) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Guardians are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are 20-6 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .632.
The Cubs are 19-5 (.792) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Guardians (Ranks 25th runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 52-16 (.765) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .197 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Guardians are batting just .225 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Guardians are batting just .219 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .130 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .804 (1,755 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .234 (202 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .477 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 30% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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