- The Cubs are + favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (+) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Guardians vs Cubs Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 39-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 42-37 ATS.
Guardians vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | + + | O + | + |
| Cubs | + + | U + | + |
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 71.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+14.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 43 games (+12.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+14.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+14.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+12.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 40 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Cubs vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Mike Tauchman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Cody Bellinger | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Cubs vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mike Tauchman | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jared Young | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 3.5 -190 | 3.5 +145 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+17.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 38-42 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -4.06% ROI).
- 39-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -10% ROI
- 30-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.6 Units / -23.46% ROI
- 46-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.15 Units / 14.89% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 42-37 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 2.33% ROI).
- 37-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -6.94% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -7.21% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -1.91% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .132 (10-for-76) against Luis Severino’s elevated fastballs in 2022 — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes in 2022 — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 96th Percentile.
Hitters chased just 53 of Luis Severino’s 203 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 26%) in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (156/316) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (528/1,164) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (237/316) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (156/316) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 26-80 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 18-86 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 26-63 (.292) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Guardians are 10-23 (.303) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 18-27 (.400) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Cubs are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Cubs are 29-14 (.674) after a win as favorites since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,203 strikeouts in 6,714 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,688 strikeouts in 9,138 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 566 strikeouts in 2,975 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .291 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .439 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 138 of 2,173 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.38 (362.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 46 of 690 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (1,950 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 38% against the Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 163 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Cubs vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Neck stiffness, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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