- The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) on Friday, June 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Guardians vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 32-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 42-27 ATS.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -115 | +120 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -105 | -145 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 70.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+13.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.10 Units / 49% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 52 games (+16.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 66 games (+16.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 68 games (+15.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 33-35 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -3.59% ROI).
- 32-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -13.2% ROI
- 25-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.8 Units / -25.27% ROI
- 40-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.55 Units / 16.67% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 42-27 against the Run Line (+15.4 Units / 18.05% ROI).
- 41-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.75 Units / 16.82% ROI
- 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -3.5% ROI
- 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -4.75% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 71% (481/675) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 55% (937/1,694) against Triston McKenzie since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .220 (191 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .255 (781 PA’s) since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (71/231) against Zac Gallen this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .138 (24 Total Bases / 174 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .373 (19-for-51) against Zac Gallen — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .429 (9-for-21) against Zac Gallen — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .231 — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are 25-78 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 24-59 (.289) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Guardians are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Diamondbacks are 29-3 (.906) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Diamondbacks are just 90-15 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,146 strikeouts in 6,415 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Guardians hitters have just 1,607 strikeouts in 8,709 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 134 strikeouts in 715 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,500 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of 65% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 131 of 2,074 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 638 of 8,576 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
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