- The Guardians are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Guardians vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 32-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 43-27 ATS.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 +100 | -115 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -120 | -105 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+14.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+12.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.15 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Tommy Henry | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+17.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 67 games (+17.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 69 games (+16.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 62 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 33-36 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -4.94% ROI).
- 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.2 Units / -14.21% ROI
- 25-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -26.46% ROI
- 41-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.55 Units / 17.76% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 43-27 against the Run Line (+16.45 Units / 19.06% ROI).
- 42-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.75 Units / 17.6% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -4.98% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -3.36% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (290/445) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (809/1,341) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (290/445) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (290/445) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 57% of Tommy Henry’s non-fastballs (211/371) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Tommy Henry has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.7 MPH (155 batted balls) this season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 89.3 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .464 (13-for-28) against Tommy Henry on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .355 — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (10/54) against Tommy Henry on breaking pitches this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are 25-79 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 17-85 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are 4-29 (.121) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are just 5-10 (.333) after a home win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .547.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .460.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-9 (.917) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are 30-3 (.909) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,154 strikeouts in 6,444 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,503 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .525 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 131 of 2,082 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 43 of 622 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
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