- The Guardians are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Sunday, June 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Guardians vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 32-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 44-27 ATS.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -105 | -115 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -115 | -105 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+11.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cam Gallagher has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+11.30 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 46 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
| Tanner Bibee | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+17.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+1.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 68 games (+18.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 70 games (+17.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 63 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 33-37 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -6% ROI).
- 32-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -15.3% ROI
- 25-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -26.11% ROI
- 41-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.55 Units / 17.48% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 44-27 against the Run Line (+17.45 Units / 19.84% ROI).
- 43-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.75 Units / 18.49% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -4.91% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -3.31% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .080 (2 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Luis Severino with runners in scoring position in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino had a strikeout rate of 46% (64/140) on low non-fastballs in 2022 — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 90th Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed an OBP of just .241 (162 PA’s) versus the top of the order in 2022 — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 95th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (958/1,489) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his pitches away 61% of the time (441/722) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Davies has a strike rate of just 54% (486/896) when ahead in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 9% (33/383) against Zach Davies since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are 25-79 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 17-85 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are 4-30 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are 25-61 (.291) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .459.
The Diamondbacks are just 91-15 (.858) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 84-21 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,154 strikeouts in 6,448 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .197 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .987 (151 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .313 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 132 of 2,090 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 44 of 630 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 72% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
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