Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:16 AM
  • The Dodgers (39-23) are -275 favorites vs the Guardians (32-27)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-4), 4.69 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw (4-1), 2.11 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Cleveland Guardians (+220) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-275) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).

The Guardians vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 32-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 35-27 ATS.

Guardians vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 +105O 8 -110+220
Dodgers -1.5 -130U 8 -110-275

Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 55 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 away games (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 11 games (+11.20 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.80 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Dodgers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Gavin Lux 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Justin Turner 0.5 +400 0.5 -700

Dodgers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Cody Bellinger 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Freddie Freeman 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Gavin Lux 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Justin Turner 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Dodgers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Gavin Lux 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Justin Turner 0.5 +160 0.5 -225

Dodgers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Clayton Kershaw 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Zach Plesac 3.5 -130 3.5 -110
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 28 games (+5.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 62 games (+7.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+7.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 32-27 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 5.46% ROI).

  • 32-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 6.73% ROI
  • 28-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -3.13% ROI
  • 27-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -5.81% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-27 against the Run Line (+5.4 Units / 7.39% ROI).

  • 39-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -6.8% ROI
  • 24-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -19.8% ROI
  • 34-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.7 Units / 11.34% ROI

Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.166 (48 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — first Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .707 (29 Total Bases / 41 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .390 (16-for-41) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .366 (15-for-41) against Zach Plesac’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — fourth Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 68% of the time (322/474) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 42% (88/207) against Clayton Kershaw when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 65% of the time (403/617) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw has thrown breaking pitches 68% of the time (323/474) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Guardians are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Guardians are 5-20 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Guardians are 22-3 (.880) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Dodgers are 20-13 (.606) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Dodgers are 29-3 (.906) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Dodgers are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Dodgers are just 1-19 (.050) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

Guardians hitters have just 278 strikeouts in 1,606 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 20% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have put 41% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 70% at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Dodgers hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .333 (6,074 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

The Guardians have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 33 of 524 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.93 (1004.1 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.02 (2002.1 IP) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Dodgers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Edwin Ríos (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Dustin May (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Andrew Heaney (Dodgers): Shoudler, D10
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Undisclosed, D60
  • Franmil Reyes (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Left Glute, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.