- The Guardians are +100 favorites vs the Mariners
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber, – ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo, – ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 6-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 10-10 ATS.
Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +180 | O 6.5 -110 | +100 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -225 | U 6.5 -110 | -120 |
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 72.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Mariners vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Mariners vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Mariners vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Mariners vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+4.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 8-11 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -22.44% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -31.04% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -19% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 11.81% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 10-10 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -4.17% ROI).
- 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -40.3% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 32.4% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (40/114) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Shane Bieber located his fastball away 57% of the time (560/990) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (138/375) against Shane Bieber with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (89/266) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo had a strikeout rate of 48% (62/130) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (210/362) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (281/474) against Luis Castillo since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .096 (11-for-114) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastballs last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 61-5 (.924) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Guardians are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,122 times in 6,163 PA’s (18%) last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters drew 190 walks in 1,781 PA’s (11%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers had an ERA of 3.55 (710.0 IP) on the road last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Mariners have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mariners vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Undisclosed, D10
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Undisclosed, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Undisclosed, D15
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Undisclosed, D60
Bet now on Guardians vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
