- The Mets are -155 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Mets starting pitcher: –
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-155) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 20-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 17-29 ATS.
Guardians vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -110 | +125 |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -110 | -155 |
Guardians vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 43 games (+22.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 41 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.85 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
Mets vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mets vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Mets vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Mets vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Tanner Bibee | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+13.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games (+3.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 18-26 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -18.35% ROI).
- 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -18.67% ROI
- 15-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -27.85% ROI
- 26-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.75 Units / 20.08% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 17-29 against the Run Line (-13.05 Units / -23.43% ROI).
- 23-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -17.53% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -11.51% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 2.1% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (172/270) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (511/846) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (511/846) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 73% of the time (331/455) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .523 (735 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .707 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 44% (21/48) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .217 (483 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .302 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .190 (131-for-689) against Justin Verlander since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Guardians are 16-76 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Guardians are 22-72 (.234) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 22-51 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians are 24-26 (.480) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mets are 109-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 1-4 (.200) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
The Mets are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are 29-13 (.690) after a home loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .644 (2,107 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Guardians hitters have just 1,444 strikeouts in 7,810 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 501 strikeouts in 2,520 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 1,072 strikeouts in 5,435 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have scored first in 63% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Mets are batting .183 with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 21 of 398 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 118 of 1,679 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 553 of 7,668 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 109 of 1,858 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .147 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 1,724 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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