- The Guardians are -250 favorites vs the Nationals
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Cleveland Guardians (-225) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+185) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Guardians vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 9-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 8-7 ATS.
Guardians vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -2.5 +110 | O 9 -110 | -225 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | U 9 -110 | +185 |
Guardians vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+15.05 Units / 107% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+9.40 Units / 78% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+5.60 Units / 93% ROI)
Nationals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -175 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Nationals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -4.81% ROI).
- 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 11.55% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 8.48% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -16.67% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 8-7 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 5.63% ROI).
- 4-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -32% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 3.96% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -9.04% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 75% of the time (52/69) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (48/73) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (519/866) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 64% of the time (176/275) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .375 (24-for-64) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .514 (19-for-37) against Patrick Corbin’s fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — first Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting .342 (163-for-477) against Patrick Corbin since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 7.71 (72.1 IP) on the road since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 4.07 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians are 20-60 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Guardians are 14-63 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are 20-3 (.870) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Guardians are 33-22 (.600) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .546.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals are just 18-103 (.149) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Nationals are just 1-7 (.125) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 2-4 (.333) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Nationals are just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 882 strikeouts in 5,058 PA’s (17%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .138 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .292 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .478 (172 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Nationals hitters have just 432 strikeouts in 2,184 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .572 (332 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 97 of 1,600 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 476 of 6,572 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 41 of 583 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .263 against Nationals pitchers with the shift since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Nationals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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