- The Guardians are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Guardians vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Nationals TV Channel: GDTV | MASN
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Monday, May 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Guardians are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 18-17 ATS.
Guardians vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 2-3, 4.79 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-1, 4.08 ERA
Guardians vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -120 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | U 9 +100 | -105 |
Guardians vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+23.00 Units / 256% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+14.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.05 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+16.90 Units / 169% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 16 away games (+2.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 17-17 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -7.68% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 17.52% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 1.56% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -6.37% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 18-17 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.81% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.96% ROI
- 17-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -2.53% ROI
- 17-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -3.02% ROI
Nationals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of just .045 (1 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an OBP of .428 (152 PA’s) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .328 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Luis Ortiz’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (37/110) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (244/631) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed a just .192 SLG vs right-handed batters (third best)– 97th Percentile and .556 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (20/131) against Jake Irvin this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 98-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Guardians are 87-3 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians are 93-2 (.979) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals are 2-18 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 40-60 (.400) on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Nationals are just 52-86 (.377) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,910 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since the 2023 season (479/13,268) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .243 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,171 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Nationals hitters had an OPS of just .901 (1,155 PA’s) when the pitcher was behind in the count in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.100.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have allowed 2.11 runs per game (74/35) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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