Guardians vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2022, 2:05 PM
  • The Guardians (23-24) are -120 favorites vs the Orioles (22-32)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (3-4), 2.64 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells (2-4), 3.71 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Cleveland Guardians (-120) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+100) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 23-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 31-23 ATS.

Guardians vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +135O 8 -115-120
Orioles +1.5 -165U 8 -105+100

Guardians vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.60 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 away games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 27 away games (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 43 games (+6.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+10.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+6.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1H Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+4.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1H Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1H Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 34 games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1H Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 26-21 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 4.71% ROI).

  • 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.74% ROI
  • 24-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.48% ROI
  • 22-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -8.52% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-23 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 4.4% ROI).

  • 22-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 1.27% ROI
  • 22-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -15.61% ROI
  • 29-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 8.76% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .064 (3-for-47) against Triston McKenzie when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (23/84) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .100 (34-for-341) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .168 — 98th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed a BABIP of .200 this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.

Tyler Wells: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (41/182) against Tyler Wells since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .178 (8-for-45) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .336 — 98th Percentile.

Tyler Wells has a strikeout rate of just 24% (26 SO in 108 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 15th lowest among among 144 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 38% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (35/124) against Tyler Wells in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 46% — third Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Guardians are 3-19 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .069.

The Guardians are 17-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .931.

The Guardians are just 5-22 (.185) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Guardians are 15-1 (.938) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Orioles are just 18-66 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .354.

The Orioles are 11-2 (.846) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Orioles are just 8-22 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 25-142 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

 

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 328 strikeouts in 1,775 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 60 strikeouts in 413 PA’s (14%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Guardians hitters have just 25 strikeouts in 234 PA’s (11%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Orioles have won just 54% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Orioles hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .291 (4,024 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (173.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

The Guardians have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Orioles pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 56 double plays in 388 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (905.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (1882.1 IP) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Orioles vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dean Kremer (Orioles): Oblique, D10
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Spenser Watkins (Orioles): Elbow, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Krehbiel (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Undisclosed, D60
  • Franmil Reyes (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Left Glute, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.