- The Guardians (23-25) are -120 favorites vs the Orioles (23-32)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (1-4), 4.92 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Bryan Baker (1-3), 5.48 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Cleveland Guardians (-120) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+100) on Sunday, June 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 23-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 32-23 ATS.
Guardians vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -120 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +100 |
Guardians vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.45 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 away games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 28 away games (+7.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 57% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+10.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 100% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1H Total Over in 23 of their last 46 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.46 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1H Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1H Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1H Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 26-22 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 3.01% ROI).
- 23-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -2.97% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 1.42% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -10.51% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 32-23 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 5.73% ROI).
- 23-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 3.11% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -13.68% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 6.72% ROI
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.269 (40 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .794 (27 Total Bases / 34 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .475 (40 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (22 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — fifth Percentile.
Bryan Baker: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .526 (10-for-19) against Bryan Baker’s low curves and sliders this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .173 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .448 (13-for-29) against Bryan Baker’s curve and slider this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .200 — first Percentile.
Bryan Baker has located his pitches away 73% of the time (81/111) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .448 (13-for-29) against Bryan Baker on sliders this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .202 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
No Matchup notes for this Game
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
No Matchup notes for this Game
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 20% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 16 strikeouts in 143 PA’s (11%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Guardians hitters have just 63 strikeouts in 448 PA’s (14%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Guardians have answered-back in 47% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .638 (705 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 35% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles have won just 49% of games in which they have scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 68%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% against Guardians pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Guardians pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (905.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.32 (985.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Spenser Watkins (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Krehbiel (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Undisclosed, D60
- Franmil Reyes (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Left Glute, D15
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