- The Orioles are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Watch the game on MASN
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-150) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 24-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 33-21 ATS.
Guardians vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -105 | +125 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -115 | -150 |
Guardians vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 34 games (+28.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+9.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Orioles vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Orioles vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Orioles vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Kyle Gibson | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +110 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 37 games (+20.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+8.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 88% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 23-30 against the Run Line (-8.6 Units / -12.82% ROI).
- 24-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -17.79% ROI
- 16-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.15 Units / -36.43% ROI
- 34-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.6 Units / 28.33% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 33-21 against the Run Line (+11.05 Units / 16.5% ROI).
- 34-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.8 Units / 17.91% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -9.28% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (32/242) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has struck out just 9% (12/139) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (18/113) against Cal Quantrill with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — fourth Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 13% (31 SO in 242 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has allowed a just .298 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .500 vs left-handed batters this season (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 12th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .382 (26-for-68) against Kyle Gibson when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .162 (6-for-37) against Kyle Gibson on low fastballs this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 85th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 60% (318/529) vs left-handed batters this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 18th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 23-74 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Guardians are 7-17 (.292) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 3-22 (.120) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 24-26 (.480) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 35-11 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .649.
The Orioles are 58-39 (.598) after a loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Orioles are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Orioles are 8-16 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have just 6 strikeouts in 69 PA’s (9%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .629 (960 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 19% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Orioles hitters have drawn 76 walks in 723 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
24% of Orioles hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 63% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 147 of 1,998 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 117 of 1,938 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 29 of 478 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 128 of 1,927 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles have won 57% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have have still managed to win 50% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Orioles vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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